Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 21?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Will New York City experience population change between -0.99% and 0% during 2025-2027?
Vol $23 today · $23.4K total
Kalshi is 4 points higher than Polymarket (31% vs 28%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 21 vs Jun 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 28% | 31% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $23 |
| Total volume | $0 | $23.4K |
| Liquidity | $641 | — |
| Open interest | — | $8.9K |
| Resolves | — | 20mo |
| Tracked for | 4 days | 13 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resoluti…
Kalshi
If the population change in New York City is between -0.99% and 0% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.