Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Vol $53.5K today · $886.8K total
Will Missão win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?
Vol $249 today · $249 total
Polymarket is 23 points higher than Kalshi (28% vs 6%). Polymarket trades about 214.8× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 26 vs Oct 27), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 28% | 6% |
| Change (24h) | -0.5 pt | -44.5 pt |
| Volume today | $53.5K | $249 |
| Total volume | $886.8K | $249 |
| Liquidity | $302.8K | — |
| Open interest | — | $83 |
| Resolves | — | 61mo |
| Tracked for | 9 days | 11 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Kalshi
If Missão wins the 2030 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.