Polymarket vs. Kalshi
Compare markets
See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Kalshi is 20 points higher than Polymarket (21% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Dec 31 vs Jul 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 21% | 0% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $324 |
| Total volume | $0 | $579.7K |
| Liquidity | — | $568.2K |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 15mo | 9mo |
| Tracked for | 8 days | 8 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Don Toliver performs (or it is announced that they will perform) at Lollapalooza Chicago 2027 during the official event timeframe, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the NBA for the 2026-27 season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to be named as the champion of NBA for the 2026-27 season per the rules of NBA (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the NBA: however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Share this comparison
Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.